Shanghai Yummy

Came across an article about a guy who shot for three hours and six minutes at craps, and I became intrigued by the odds calculation on this, with respect to The Legend.

Using the Wizard's method of calculating the odds, I assumed that Vince shot for an hour, meaning 60 rolls. I'd say this estimate is a little on the high side because towards the end, the dealers were taking several minutes to pay out the winnings after each roll, but since this is the benchmark used by the Wizard in calculating that the odds of a single shooter rolling for 3 hours and 6 minutes are 1 in 664 billion, I'll use the same. If we assume 60 rolls, the average number of rolls per pass line bet to be resolved to be 3.38 rolls, we get 17.75 pass line bets. Subtract one to account for the last one, which he sevened-out on, and round up just for the benefit of the doubt, and we get 17 pass line bets. With the probability of either winning the pass line bet or losing on the come out (therefore, the shooter keeping the dice) being 60.4%, we get .604^17 as the probability of Vince shooting for an hour. This is about 1 in 5277.

Not insane, but still legendary, in my book.

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